Jason Rennie's College Sports Rankings
Take a look at my web-published paper, "Ranking Sports Teams," for a
brief description of my methodology: .
College Basketball Rankings
The 3/11/07 ranking has (so far) correctly predicted 3 (out of 5 predicted) upsets:
- Winthrop over Notre Dame
- Tennessee over Virginia
- UNLV over Oregon
- UCLA over Kansas
- UCLA over Florida
Bracket points: 120/192
- First round: 28/32 (28/32 correct)
- Second round: 24/32 (12/16 correct)
- Third round: 28/32 (7/8 correct)
- Fourth round: 24/32 (3/4 correct)
- Fifth round: 16/32 (1/2 correct)
- Sixth Round: 0/32 (0/1 correct)
The 3/12/06 ranking out-performed 62% of all brackets submitted for
Tournament Pick'Em. It correctly predicted 2 (out of 4 predicted) upsets.
College Football Rankings
- 1/16/07 - Found a bug in the CF python code---neutral stadiums
were not being handled correctly. I'm going to re-do the 1/8/07 run.
- 11/18/06 - It would be interesting to include stadium seating
capacity as a variable in the home field advantage variable. Googling
football stadiums provides useful results. CollegeCharlie.com includes
a link to 2005 game attendance sorted by average
attendance per game and percent
of capacity. Looks like it wouldn't be too difficult to make this happen...
- 11/3/06 - Realized that I had been using a weird procedure for
initializing parameters for gradient descent when selecting the
regularization parameter via cross-validation. I now use the
optimized parameter setting from the previous round, and use a small
absolute tolernace (1e-10) to terminate the gradient descent.
Last modified: Tue Apr 3 23:19:09 EDT 2007